Division 2
Oh sweet respite — finally a break from all the aimless guessi- “ok so legitsplit has Cory and jihadi and Jeremy” — huh. Nevermind. Hand me those darts and a blindfold.
Tier 3
8. Jesus | DrDeath, Jesus, Ribbo, srEo, HESOIJAM
Average: 5284 | 5690, 4670, 5750, 5180, 5130
Another team that I imagine might line up differently — particularly in the core roles — but one where the specifics of the setup don’t sway me much. To be completely honest, this placement isn’t really a result of my conviction that they’re bound to be the worst team, or even necessarily a bad one in general, as much as it’s just a roster of players I don’t know too much about, and what I do know boils down to them not having a proven quantity as most other teams do — someone who’s shown multiple times the ability to take control of games and keep a firm grip on them. Would be fun to be proven wrong though — I always enjoy watching stacks of fresh faces create upsets.
7. Omegasaw | waterfalls, Omegasaw, Mari, STJ, Yesketchup
Average: 5200 | 6000, 5650, 5200, 5310, 3840
The infamous Omegasaw-waterfalls duo swings violently between ups and downs in organized play — when they’re on, they come into games well prepared and are able to play clean and well paced Dota. When they’re off their game, however, it comes off the back of low activity and a struggle to execute mechanically what they might draw up — and between MMR drops and barren activity pages, I’m guessing this season will feature the latter for the team.
Tier 2
6. legitsplit | jeremy, jihapse, CORY, AA, legitsplit
Average: 5268 | 3810, 5410, 6100, 5000, 6020
parni, chto mi nadraftili?
If you need a carry/offlane flex, you can take your pick from this team. One of the most befuddling drafts in recent times — and lord knows there’s been some doozies — with 5 core players, none of whom really play much mid, naturally with the exception of the only ones who might play some support. I’d make a comment about my guess here for the role setup being unlikely to pan out, but sources suggest the team itself isn’t all too clear on what they’ll roll up to their first series with. The full extent of my logic here is “uh legitsplit likes Chen mid so I’m sure that’s transferable” — it may just be a case of sticking the lower MMRs on support roles, but it’s hard to get over the question of how they landed in this situation in the first place. All that being said, I do think there’s enough talent here to pick up a couple wins here or there, but I can’t see a deeper run happening.
5. Jammy | Daikoon, ColNilsOlav, Syrphx, sparvel, Jammy
Average: 5302 | 6140, 5910, 4400, 5020, 5040
Going into the top 5 here I feel like there’s a bit of a leap — this team (and the subsequent four) feels well-rounded and straightforward in a way that my bottom 3 doesn’t.
But don’t let that distract you from what this is — an absolute classic, a hall of famer, worth being framed just for how beautiful it is: 2 of the Divisions top 8 MMR players, paired with solid veteran supports… and Syrphx. A dozen higher MMR players skipped over for the pure comedy of depriving Syrphx of the ability to pick himself onto ponpo’s team, making your own team slightly worse than it could’ve been, and making the already stacked ponpo team slightly better than it would’ve been, all for a hearty giggle. Absolute power move, genuinely beautiful. Oh and the team’s alright I suppose, something something Nils mid something something newcomer 6k core, yadda yadda, who cares — it’s the entertainment we’re here for, much like Jammy in the draft.
4. nnaarrzz | TrungHoang, Dekait, nnaarrzz, Scotalot, Badpak
Average: 5442 | 6060, 5820, 5130, 5070, 5130
When I label this team my pick as the dark horse of the division, it is, plain and simple, me taking a chance, a shot in the dark. Yes, Dekait is a stable mid, and I suppose Scotalot retiring from league play to instead match up against most of the same people in unranked stacks does result in him being known enough to add to the accuracy of attempts to evaluate the team (his switch from his usual support role in years past to core roles notwithstanding), but a trio of completely fresh players makes it hard to say anything much more detailed than that. The Dotabuffs look okay though, and with what should be a very strong pair of farming cores, I’d look towards this team as having good potential to cause trouble.
3. Nino | Nino, ccry, Frasse, Marceline, Grieftain
Average: 5442 | 5820, 5120, 6000, 5270, 5000
Sometimes you look at a roster for the 5th time and a switch flips and you swap around most of the rankings. Let’s operate under the assumption that this isn’t just me overthinking things — Nino is a stable carry, and the Frasse Marceline lane is of proven quality (if a while ago) — so even if newcomer ccry struggles as one might expect he will against the other mids in the division, there’s solid sidelanes to fall back on. This team could easily make a fairly deep run, with my expectation being that the deciding factor for their success will be the strength of their drafts and ability to shotcall — because they’re certainly not lacking the tools.
Tier 1
2. Saki | Sneaky Steve, Dodgy Dan, StaXxy, Gecko, Saki
Average: 5558 | 5630, 5800, 5640, 4890, 5830
The elite super hidden secret strat of picking people you know and want to play with with the knowledge that others lack this information (despite the little itty bitty friends this week chunk of a Dotabuff profile) has yielded Dan and friends a tidy little draft here. Well-balanced, highest average by some margin even with Gecko at 4.8 (should we maybe have adjusted him? I wonder), this squad ought to do well — unless they’ve been horrifically wrong about each other or something. A contender to be sure.
1. ponpo | Nsphere, ponpo, Mikel, ashteezy, tammyB
Average: 5328 | 6450, 5600, 5080, 4600, 4910
We finally arrive at what should realistically be the best team — strong players across every role, a good foundation for effective comms, and heaps of experience in this kind of environment leave me with the expectation that this team can put Nsphere on their back and carry him across the finish line.
Division 1
Haha, look at these fools! Szajtek to rime hahaha! UK friendship stacks, so silly! 7ks for 2 coins, this is ludicrous! I’m gonna have a blast with my Div 2 draft tomorrow!
> madsen 28
Hm.
Tier 3
8. Debowy | Crispy Bacon, SenShi, Revive, Barg, Debowy
Average: 6396 | 6150, 6130, 6570, 6470, 6660
In the interest of not complicating (which is to say, not going on some tangent about how little I have to say about this team purely to fill space), I’ll strip it down to basics. This team is unimpressive overall, and from where I’m at, is incredibly likely to depend massively on SenShi, technically the lowest MMR player; something went wrong in the draft here, and it’s lead to a team that lacks reliable win conditions. I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom, as by this point it’s been proven that the best teams often end up being well-rounded ones putting in stable performances and improving during the season, and this could turn out to be one of those (particularly as the common thread across many of the past teams I’m referring to here is exactly Crispy Bacon) — I just, uh, don’t think it will be.
7. Ekken | Madsen, midking, sky_, Ekken, Eisi
Average: 6610 | 6000, 5200, 6700, 9260, 5890
POV: You have three 5k cores and Ekken.
This is how our team enviroment is like. Ekken is screaming in the mic:” MY FRIENDDD MID DIFF MY FRIENDDD ANY OVERTHROWERS”. I sigh “IDK MAN I HAVE LIKE 20 CS” everytime the enemy 4 clicks a spell on me. Midking is spamming Shift Left-Click on his deathtimer to count it every second, he’s also spamming Shift Left-Click enemy mid Stick to remind us every second how he got mid diffed while me and Ekken are yelling at him stop whine it’s ok it happens bro my friendddd. Meanwhile sky’s spamming “my FUCKING INTERNET” on the chat wheel while typing “I can’t do that on hotspot man” every other second. Alas we have Eisi aka “Eisi” aka “Eisi” playing tree meteor hammering sidelanes and I think he muted all of us.
Tier 2
I shuffled the teams in this tier about half a dozen times and eventually sort of just gave up. wcyd
6. Lokie | Lokie, Kk, Memerli, shnoor, Myst
Average: 6420 | 7590, 5700, 6290, 6370, 6150
I’m not entirely sure what to make of this team; I mean yes, it’s the average UK unranked stack with a shnoor in place of some other 4, but I don’t know how that stacks up here. Lokie’s a beast, but I do think the rest of the team might be required to perform above their MMR to threaten some of the top teams in the division — or at bare minimum, this team will need to get significant mileage out of their unranked experiences.
5. Zakke | mint, Water, Takeshi, Zakke, Benji
Average: 6246 | 6420, 6840, 5910, 7010, 5050
On occasion when writing these things I’ll stumble upon a team that I feel is bound to be of the feast or famine variety — top 2 or bottom 2, nothing else. Sometimes I’ll take my guess between the two, sometimes I’ll just stick ’em in the middle as I have here. This team makes sense to me across the board, I get the idea — yet I can’t help but imagine what a matchup between this and what I expect a top team may look like, and it’s…not favorable. In particular I have slight concerns about this team’s ability to get through high-pressure series in the playoffs and come out the other side in one piece.
4. Dredi | Sad Kiwi, Kyoto, Backwardshello, Polarize, Dredi
Average: 6786 | 7060, 6470, 6510, 7450, 6440
Dredi presumably spotted his targets before the draft and, for better or for worse, stuck to them. I have fewer issues with this approach than others seem to, even when it results in epic moments like Szajtek 41, because constructing a solid team of players you want to play with is just about the single best approach to these leagues. It helps in the ranking that it’s a very well-rounded team on top of this — all in all, I see this team doing fairly well, particularly on the offchance that there’s synergy I’m unaware of at play here.
3. Aurora | FluffySandwich, Glete, Aurora, Rce, Codex
Average: 6714 | 6010, 7560, 7200, 7000, 5800
This feels like Lokie stack but better — average UK unranked stack, except no concessions made. Add a little bit more MMR here and there, and you’ve suddenly got a team that feels decently equipped to face the heavy hitters of the division. Naturally a lot of this hinges on the supposition that Glete will be a menace throughout the season, but I’ve little reason to believe that won’t be the case, so I’m confident the team will do well.
Tier 1
2. Snufkin | play, Harbinger, wooo, Crysen, Snufkin
Average: 6668 | 7120, 5940, 6530, 7600, 6150
I’ll say here what I said to Harb directly:
@Harbinger why do I have this feeling that ur team is going to do some cursed roles when u have other rly good setups
What do you mean by good setups
i mean like i can imagine play-you-woo-crysen-snufkin or woo-you-crysen-play-snufkin or w/e being good but i have this sinking feeling its somehow gna be some stupid shit
And that’s sorta what it boils down to here. Put Harb mid, bully one of play or Wooo into 1, do yourselves a favor. In any case, this should be a pretty great team. Probably. Maybe they just get rolled by super high MMR core players or something. Probably not though. Right?
1. rime | Szajtek, rime, haraway, Waloo, OK
Average: 6964 | 8470, 8710, 6000, 6020, 5620
POV: You assemble one of the strongest stacks to ever pop up in an EU amateur league. You play 4 weeks of groups, mercilessly stomping everyone in your path. People get a bit tilted occasionally, but you’re all making a conscious effort to keep it together and chill, because you know this is a free win.
You lose game 1 during your week 5 series. Everyone is screaming. Tears are shed. Two people yell, then leave the call, and subsequently the server. You’re pinged in the #season-reviews channel:
You’re a toxic piece of human trash. You treat everyone like complete garbage everyday and have no compassion for others. You have absolutely no filter and say the most obscene of things. You don’t care about others. You are one of the worst people I have ever met in my entire life. I wish I never met you. I wish I never had to deal with your toxicity. I wish I didn’t tell you things when you were faking being nice towards me. I wish lj never introduced me to you. Sometimes I wish I never helped you. You almost make me want to stop being myself and wish harm towards you. Maybe the people from DEA were right to treat you like that. You’re so hypocritical it’s stupid. You say absolutely terrible things to everyone and if they do the tiniest thing to offend you, you act like a little baby and get extremely triggered. Sometimes you make me want to cry because you’re so toxic.
Crispy Bacon celebrates his third CL win in the background.
(This is the outcome for this season in 8 of 10 simulations.)
Thanks for reading! Hope everyone has an enjoyable season.
